It sounds like the Twins and Dodgers are at an impasse right now in their negotiations over Brian Dozier.

My personal opinion is that a player of Dozier’s value is work one very good prospect (top-50 or better) and one decent prospect (top-75-150). In the case of the current Dozier trade rumors, Jose De Leon is the agreed-upon headliner. He is probably a top-20 or top-30 prospect. So the first part of a trade works. But according to rumors, the Dodgers are reluctant to add another decent prospect.

From the Dodgers perspective, this makes sense. They don’t need Dozier right now. They have one of the best teams in the NL as is, and they are already projected to beat the Giants by over 7 games in 2017. Further, they have figured out that the rest of the league isn’t terribly interested in Dozier right now. So at this point, it isn’t in their best interest to overpay, or even pay the expected amount. They can put in a below-market offer, and if the Twins accept, great. If the Twins don’t accept, they can afford to wait a while. Odds are, Dozier won’t be any more expensive at mid-season. Further, they can save their prospects and use them for any other potential roster holes that might show up between now and July.

From the Twins perspective, recent evidence shows that the Twins should be able to receive a top-50 prospect (though perhaps not as good as De Leon) either at the deadline or next off-season. Lucroy, Gomez, Upton, Kendricks, et al. So there isn’t a huge risk to turn down the Dodger’s offer of 75 cents on the dollar. Dozier is a very good player, and most likely will continue to be a very good player for the next couple of seasons. They shouldn’t have to worry about getting significantly less than what the Dodgers are offering right now.

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